DOCSNYSEThe short version
Doximity, Inc.
Doximity runs the largest verified network of U.S. physicians and sells access to it to drug makers and hospitals. It is highly profitable and cash-rich, but its growth has downshifted from 20% to a guided 4%.
Public at $26 in June 2021, above $100 within months, back near $73 by September 2025, then down about 70% to $22 by mid-2026 as growth reset.
$21.77
Share price
$4.0B
Market cap
$645M
FY2026 revenue
85%+
of U.S. physicians on the network
SwipeScroll▾
The statements
Profitable and cash-rich, with growth downshifting and stock comp climbing
FY2022 → FY2026as reported · $
Revenue$645M+13%
Gross margin89.1%−1.1pp
Operating margin33.3%−6.6pp
Net income$196M−12%
EPS$0.98−12%
Free cash flow$326M+19%
Open the full statements →As-reported figures, FY2022–FY2026 (year ends March 31).
- The arc. Revenue nearly doubled from $344M in FY2022 to $645M in FY2026, at an 89% gross margin, with operating cash flow rising from $127M to $326M — roughly half of revenue converts to cash.
- The dip. Net income fell to $196M from $223M even as revenue grew, because stock-based compensation jumped to $122M from $72M, pushing operating margin to 33% from 40%.
- The balance sheet. The company ended FY2026 with $749M of cash and securities and no debt, and has been GAAP-profitable throughout its public life.
The slowdown
The growth reset reached the biggest, most committed customers
20% → 4%
Revenue growth, FY2025 to guided FY2027
119% → 114%
Top-20 net revenue retention
6%
Over-$500k cohort growth, roughly halved
109%
Total net revenue retention, from 119%
FY2026 key metrics and FY2027 guidance, per the 10-K and Q4 call.
- Key finding. Doximity's growth reset from 20% to a guided 4% reached its biggest, most committed customers — top-20 net revenue retention fell from 119% to 114% and the over-$500k cohort's growth halved to 6% — so the deceleration is not only in the marginal spend a cyclical rebound would restore.
- The counter, in the same breath. Retention is still above 100%, so the installed base kept growing; the pricing shock landed on 16 of the top-20 pharma accounts, disrupting budget timing rather than demand; and January bookings were the best since the 2021 IPO.
The network
Near-universal reach, and physicians are using it more, not less
Quarterly active workflow providers (000s)
Unique active providers using workflow tools, per the FY2026 10-K.
- The audience moat is wide. More than 85% of U.S. physicians, roughly 90% of graduating medical students, and two-thirds of nurse practitioners and physician assistants sit on a credential-verified network rivals cannot easily rebuild.
- Used, not just registered. Quarterly active workflow providers rose to 810,000 from 580,000 two years earlier — embedded scheduling, dialer and documentation tools are the switching cost.
- Where it bends. The revenue moat is narrower: it is a slice of a discretionary, cyclical pharma budget, and a 109% retention rate shows that share expanding more slowly than engagement would imply.
Business quality
A software-grade earner: six times a pure-play peer's revenue at six times the margin
Doximity vs. the indexed pure-play peer
| Company (latest FY) | Revenue | Net margin |
|---|---|---|
| Doximity (FY2026) | $645M | 30% |
| OptimizeRx (FY2025) | $109M | 5% |
Latest fiscal years, per each company's 10-K.
- Owned network vs. rented channel. Doximity monetizes a verified physician network it controls; OptimizeRx reaches doctors through point-of-care messaging inside EHR systems — the model difference shows up in the margin gap.
- Not immunity. Medscape captures marketing dollars through content without owning the workflow, and an AI-native rival, OpenEvidence, is now named directly in Doximity's 10-K competition disclosures.
What broke
A hot first half, then a growth cliff in the annual selling season
Revenue growth, year-over-year, by quarter
Quarterly revenue growth, FY2025–FY2026, as reported.
- A datable cause. Between late December and early January, 16 of the top-20 pharma customers signed most-favored-nation pricing agreements with the White House — at the exact week they set annual budgets, disrupting the upfront.
- Delay, not demand. Deals slipped into the fourth quarter rather than vanishing; January pharma bookings grew at the fastest rate since the 2021 IPO. The unresolved part is whether held-back dollars are spent later at a normal rate.
- The tell to watch. That the top-20 retention rate also fell nine points from its peak says the pressure reached the accounts that anchor the business, harder to wave off as one bad December.
The bet
An AI investment year: the cost is in the numbers, the revenue is not yet
Research and development expense ($M)
R&D rose 40% in FY2026, to 20% of revenue, per the 10-K.
- Cost now. R&D jumped 40% to $131M, and the FY2027 guide sets adjusted EBITDA below the prior year in dollars — roughly $329M against $358M — as AI compute, marketing and stock comp rise.
- Revenue later. The clinical-AI tools are free to physicians by design; monetization is meant to come from a paid AI Search advertising product, launched in late April, with minimal FY2027 contribution.
- The risk. Doximity gives its clinical AI away while OpenEvidence, a well-funded AI-native reference tool, competes for the same physician attention and innovation budgets.
Capital allocation
All return of capital runs through buybacks — and the biggest tranche paid up
Repurchase programs, average price paid
| Program | Avg price | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Programs through Apr 2024 | ~$25 | Completed |
| May 2024 ($500M) | ~$43 | Completed Mar 2026 |
| Feb 2026 ($500M) | ~$23 | Active; ~$492M left |
Per the FY2024 and FY2026 10-Ks; average prices calculated.
- The cash is real. Buybacks are funded entirely from cash generation, with no dividend and no debt; diluted shares fell from 213M in FY2023 to 199M in FY2026 even as stock comp doubled.
- The timing is not flattering. The flagship $500M program retired 11.6M shares near $43, worth about $252M at today's $22; spending peaked at $432M in FY2026 while the stock was most expensive.
- The open question. The fresh, cheaper $492M authorization has barely been touched — whether it is deployed near $22 or sits idle at the old $43 average is a FY2027 tell.
What the price implies
Cheap at ~10x cash flow — or roughly fair at ~16x, turning on one accounting choice
$317M
Reported free cash flow — about 10x EV
$205M
Owner cash, net of stock comp — about 16x EV
$122M
Stock compensation added back to cash flow
~$21
Steady-case value on owner cash vs. $21.77 price
FY2026 cash bases and a 10% discounted-cash-flow frame, per the report.
- Key finding. The $122 million of stock compensation that lifts Doximity's free cash flow to $317 million above its $196 million of net income is also what decides its valuation: on reported free cash flow it trades at ~10x, but net that compensation out and owner cash is ~$205 million — ~16x, whose steady-growth DCF is ~$21, essentially today's $21.77 price.
- The counter, in the same breath. The stock-comp step-up is guided as a discrete, reversing Pathway and AI-grant event trending down from FY2028, and reported free cash flow is cash actually collected — it funded $432M of FY2026 buybacks.
Governance
A controlled company: a minority of the economics decides every shareholder vote
Voting power vs. economic ownership
Per the 2025 proxy; ten-vote Class B versus one-vote Class A.
- The wedge. Co-founder and CEO Jeff Tangney holds 76% of the vote on 29% of the economics; insiders as a group command 80% of the vote on 31% of the shares.
- No external check. The dual-class structure runs to mid-2031, the board is staggered and chaired by Tangney with no lead independent director — so every capital-allocation call is effectively an insider decision.
The scenarios
At $21.77 the price sits near the no-growth floor
Fair value on reported free cash flow ($/share)
Ceiling — base business tops out
$19
Steady — durable ~5% network
$31
Re-acceleration — AI Search + cycle turns
$45
Chapter-5 DCF (10% discount rate); on owner cash the ladder is ~$14 / ~$21 / ~$30.
- Where it trades. The current price sits between the ceiling and steady cases on reported cash flow, and at the steady case on the stricter owner-cash base — so the recovery and AI-Search optionality carry essentially no value in the quote.
- What the Street models. Consensus mirrors the company's own 4% guide, then a modest FY2028 bounce; analyst targets run $18 to $42, with a $24.50 mean — a trough followed by a bounce, not a re-acceleration.
Two readings
The same four quarters carry a datable shock and a slide that reached the anchors
The cyclical read vs. the structural read
| Cyclical (soft patch) | Structural (ceiling) |
|---|---|
| MFN pricing shock hit 16 of top-20 in the Dec–Jan upfront | Retention fell every quarter, 118% to 109%, reaching the top-20 |
| January pharma bookings the best since the 2021 IPO | FY2027 guided to about market growth, after years at ~2x it |
| Record engagement; free cash flow up 19% to $317M | Top-20 clients shifted to 3–6 month buys, cutting visibility |
The two reads cannot yet be separated from the March-2026 record.
- What keeps both live. A pure air-pocket in discretionary spend would spare the biggest customers; instead the top-20 rate fell too — but the cyclical case answers that the same policy shock hit exactly those accounts.
- Resolved by prints, not analysis. The cyclical answer is a promise about money not yet collected; the FY2027 selling season is where it is confirmed or denied.
The re-rating
A 70% fall driven by re-rating unchanged cash flow, not collapsing cash flow
NYSE daily closes, June 2021 – July 2026.
- Multiple compression, not a break. Free cash flow set a record and grew 19% in the same year the shares lost two-thirds of their value; the enterprise went from ~40x free cash flow to ~10x.
- The balanced read. At ~10x reported cash flow — or ~16x owner cash — for a business guided to 4% growth, the multiple looks closer to fair than to a bargain, with the AI-Search option close to free.
What to watch
Priced near its no-growth floor: cheap if the slowdown was timing, roughly fair if the ceiling is real.
- 01Whether growth re-accelerates toward a double-digit exit rate by calendar year-end, versus the guided ~4% — the clearest cyclical-vs-ceiling tell, printing around Q3 FY2027.
- 02Net revenue retention stabilizing rather than sliding further below 109%, especially in the top-20 anchor accounts.
- 03The first disclosed AI Search revenue — or continued silence while its compute cost stays in the P&L.
- 04Whether the ~$492M of remaining buyback authorization is deployed near ~$22, or sits idle at the old ~$43 average.
This distills a guided study built chapter by chapter — the statements, the moat, the slowdown, the cash economics, and what would settle the question.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-20 · For information, not investment advice.